Bob Mackin
The third B.C. budget of the David Eby NDP era forecasts a $10.9 billion deficit on $84 billion revenue.
The 2025-2026 fiscal blueprint, tabled March 4 by Finance Minister Brenda Bailey, expects the debt will further balloon to $208.8 billion by 2027-2028. Everything is subject to change due to the day’s big international news: U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports.
B.C. NDP finance minister Brenda Bailey (BC Gov/Flickr)
The NDP says it has built-in $4 billion in contingencies each year for the next three years due to global economic and geopolitical risks and increased costs and demands for healthcare, social programs and disaster recovery.
Eby gets more, watchdogs get less
Eby issued a post-election edict to cut costs, but apparently did not keep the memo for his own staff.
The Conflict of Interest Commissioner’s office budget is cut from $899,000 to $893,000-a-year. Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner, which also oversees the lobbying registry, went from $11.01 million this year to $10.93 million next year.
The Representative for Children and Youth, which investigates abuse and neglect of foster children, was reduced from $12.83 million to $12.6 million.
But the Office of the Premier gets more than $1 million extra in the new fiscal year, beginning April 1, from $17.37 million to $18.45 million.
Ministries and special offices are expected to stand pat at 38,900 full-time equivalent staff.
But service delivery agencies will see a bump, from 9,195 to 9,486.
The NDP had estimated 46,472 staff last year, but this year, 48,386.
Carbon tax hike on schedule
Candidates to replace Justin Trudeau as the Liberal leader and Prime Minister have vowed to change or cancel the consumer carbon tax.
For now, the NDP plans to hike B.C.’s version of the tax on April 1 to $95/tonne, as part of the $15/tonne annual increase. Government expects to bring in $665 million and spend $670 million on climate action tax credits. It is still scheduled to reach $170/tonne by 2030.
Premier David Eby on budget day (BC Gov/Flickr)
Higher parking prices coming
TransLink will get to increase its 24% maximum tax rate on off-street parking to 29%.
Exceptions include metered street parking, a resident’s primary parking spot and parking sites purchased for 28 consecutive days or more for business purposes.
World Cup spending
Despite the involvement of four ministries, the only obvious line for the FIFA World Cup 26 in Vancouver is the $108.5 million renovation at B.C. Place Stadium.
Already, B.C. Pavilion Corporation spent $32.05 million by the end of December and another $76.56 million is estimated to complete the upgrades demanded by FIFA.
Overall, PavCo forecasts a $14.05 million deficit on $167.47 million revenue in the new fiscal year. Last year, it reported a $400,000 surplus on $199.77 million revenue.
PavCo forecasts a $12.74 million loss at BC Place in 2025-26 and a $1.31 million loss at the Vancouver Convention Centre. In 2026-2027, the fiscal year in which B.C. Place will host seven matches, PavCo projects the stadium will finish $10.76 million in the red.
Autoplan
Crown auto insurer ICBC’s service plan forecasts $1.4 billion net income (after budgeting for a balance) “primarily due to higher investment income and lower than expected claims costs.”
ICBC headquarters in North Vancouver (Mackin)
So it will issue $110 rebates to eligible customers, similar to the 2023-2024 program, totalling $410 million.
During its 16 year-run in opposition, the NDP was fond of criticizing the BC Liberal government for using ICBC as an ATM whenever politically convenient.
ICBC is spending $162 million through 2028 to move from Lonsdale Quay to new, leased headquarters in Vancouver.
Before last year’s election, Eby announced the government “bought” the Lonsdale Quay complex from the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure in order to redevelop for affordable housing.
The ICBC service plan said the estimated gain from the sale of that property would be booked in the 2026-2027 fiscal year. “Timing and amount subject to change.”
Trump trouble tally
On “Tariff Tuesday,” the province updated its doomsday numbers.
But it is not willing to share details on how they were created.
In January, Bailey estimated $69 billion in cumulative GDP loss and 124,000 fewer jobs by 2028 due to U.S. tariffs. On budget day, the government stretched the time period to 2029 but reduced the anticipated harm, to $43 billion in GDP loss and 45,000 in job losses.
Bailey’s staff relied on the B.C. Macroeconomic Model, however, they did not publish a step-by-step explanation of how they arrived at the old or new estimates.
The morning started with a patriotic speech by Eby in the Victoria convention centre.
Normally, the premier steps back and lets the finance minister have all the limelight on budget day. These are not normal times.
The trade war’s first casualty was the cancellation of the $1,000 grocery rebate Eby promised during last fall’s election. On budget day, Eby announced that liquor from Republican-supporting states would be removed from B.C. government liquor store shelves again.
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