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  • No products in the cart. Podcast: Pollster ponders the panoply of politics in 2019 Podcast: Pollster ponders the panoply of politics in 2019


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in the last year of his mandate. The countdown is on to the Oct. 21 federal election. Can Conservative Andrew Scheer find a way to beat the incumbent Liberals or will Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party of Canada split the vote? 

Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart is in his first calendar year in office. Can Stewart find a solution to the city’s housing crisis?

The partnership between Premier John Horgan and Green Party leader Andrew Weaver is nearing its halfway point. But voters in the Jan. 30 Nanaimo by-election could shake it up. 

Research Co. pollster Mario Canseco (Mackin)

“It’s definitely going to be difficult for the Liberals to take a seat in Nanaimo,” said Research Co. pollster Mario Canseco in an interview with Podcast host Bob Mackin. “They might be feeling a little more confident because of the defeat of the proportional representation referendum, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.” 

Even if the BC Liberals score an upset in the “Hub City,” Canseco said, it is more likely that Horgan and the NDP would seek a majority rather than give the BC Liberals the satisfaction of sparking an early provincial election. Opposition leader Andrew Wilkinson has not connected with voters, fears of the NDP ruining the economy have not come to fruition and voters may be fatigued after the fall’s municipal election and electoral reform referendum.

“I just don’t think it’s going to happen unless something really drastic takes place,” Canseco said. “Let’s say,  something related to the investigation into the Legislature or something related to money laundering. Something that helps the NDP say ‘give us a majority mandate and nothing like this is going to happen again’.”

The wildcard truly is the investigation into alleged corruption at the Legislature, after clerk Craig James and sergeant-at-arms Gary Lenz were suspended in late November. Speaker Darryl Plecas promises to deliver details on Jan. 21 that won’t compromise the criminal investigation by the RCMP and two special prosecutors.

Listen to the full interview, as Canseco looks at the 12 months to come in politics. Plus Pacific Northwest and Pacific Rim headlines and commentaries. 

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