Bob Mackin
Consumers brace for economic upheaval on both sides of the border. Reporter’s notebook on Day 1 of the biggest, cross-border war of words in more than 160 years
Timing is everything
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (left) and President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November 2024. (Sen. Dave McCormick/X)
A day of drama on Feb. 1. Twelve days after Donald Trump’s second presidency began. Thirty-six days before the Liberal Party chooses a replacement for the resigning Justin Trudeau, likely Mark Carney.
Feb. 1 was also 495 days until the kickoff of the FIFA World Cup 26 — when the governments of the U.S., Canada and Mexico are supposed to work together to host the biggest single-sport event in history. (Three quarters of matches in the U.S., including the final. The remaining 25% split by Canada and Mexico).
Trump set Feb. 4 at 12:01 a.m. Eastern/Feb. 3 at 9:01 p.m. as the effective date for 25% tariffs on Canadian goods (except for 10% on energy).
Why did Trump choose Feb. 4? One clue. It’s the anniversary of George Washington’s 1789 election as the first president.
Trump blames fentanyl
Feb. 1 was also the day after the second anniversary of the NDP-requested, Trudeau Liberal-approved decriminalization of small amounts of hard drugs in B.C. (including fentanyl).
Trump’s 2,083-word Executive Order is titled “Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border,” under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and National Emergencies Act.
It cited the Jan. 23-published, Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre “Operational Alert, Laundering the Proceeds of Illicit Synthetic Opioids,” produced with RCMP, Canada Border Services Agency, Homeland Security Investigations, Canada Post and CIBC. The report “recognized Canada’s heightened domestic production of fentanyl, largely from British Columbia, and its growing footprint within international narcotics distribution.”
The week before U.S. election day, on Hallowe’en, the RCMP announced the Oct. 25 “take down [of the] largest, most sophisticated drug superlab” in Falkland, B.C.
The RCMP news release said the lab had the potential to produce 95.5 million potentially lethal doses of fentanyl.
In December, thePodcast featured Peter German, the chair of the Vancouver Anti-Corruption Institute and author of a report about one of Canada’s biggest vulnerabilities: the un-policed ports.
Stand up, sit down, fight, fight, fight
Instead of following protocol, Eby went first. He spoke alone, seated at a table in his downtown Vancouver office for eight minutes, looking straight into the camera at 4:30 p.m. Pacific.
Trudeau appeared after an unexplained three-hour delay, at 9:11 p.m. Eastern. He spoke standing up for 13-minutes, flanked by Public Safety Minister David McGuinty, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, three officials whose trips to Washington, D.C. failed to stop Trump.
Trudeau said Canada would slap a 25% counter-tariff on $155 billion of U.S. goods —$30 billion to start and $125 billion in three weeks.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (left) and B.C. Premier David Eby (CPAC)
Trudeau downplays security threats
“We have one of the strongest, more secure borders in the world between Canada and the United States. As I said, less than 1% of fentanyl going into the United States comes from Canada. Less than 1% of illegal migrants going into the United States come from Canada.”
Trudeau quoted seizure figures. For obvious reasons, smugglers do not declare their cross-border shipments.
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B.C. Presidential history
Eby mentioned President Warren G. Harding’s 1923 visit to Stanley Park, the first presidential visit to Canada. Some 50,000 attended the Vancouver rally. (Eby didn’t mention that Republican Harding died a week later in San Francisco.)
He also mentioned Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 visit to sign the Columbia River Treaty, but strategically omitted Bill Clinton’s two Vancouver visits (Clinton-Yeltsin Summit 1994 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit 1997) and Joe Biden’s two vice-presidential visits (Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics opening ceremony and Canada 2015 Women’s World Cup final).
Then: Pig War. Now: Bigly War.
The Trump-Trudeau trade war is the biggest cross-border war of words since the Pig War of 1859 to 1871.
Sparked by an American farmer shooting a pig owned by a Hudson’s Bay Co.-employed rancher on disputed San Juan Island. Compensation talks broke down, so American and British soldiers were called-in and a stand-off lasted a dozen years. The Treaty of Washington, led by Kaiser Wilhelm I of Germany, defined the border as we know it today, with San Juan Island in Washington State.
Hit the Road, Jack
B.C. Liquor Stores will no longer stock American liquor from red states. That includes Jack Daniel’s from Tennessee and Jim Beam from Kentucky. (Blue state California supplies most of LDB’s U.S. wine, while most U.S. beer is made in Canada by Molson Coors or Labatt.)
Eby: “I had a particular experience early on in my drinking career, that with Jack Daniels, that it’s not my drink of choice, but for those who do like it, you know, I want you to be able to get it. But the reality is that there are jurisdictions in the states that are supporting this trade war against us, that are supporting these tariffs against us.”
Eby also directed government and Crown corporations to “immediately stop buying American goods and services and buy Canadian.” He also said the government would expedite 10 major energy and infrastructure projects. He did not specify, but estimated they were worth $20 billion and would create 6,000 jobs in northern and rural B.C.
Something fishy
Eby seemed confused about ownership of frozen fish brands.
“I was at Costco, I was looking at the Captain High Liner fish. I was looking at the Jane’s fish. The Janes had the big Canadian maple leaf on it. You know, we make the Canadian choice. You choose the Canadian product. When you have a good substitution to make, that will do two things. One is it will help keep your costs down in a time of strain around affordability. But the other is, it will send a message.”
TSE-listed High Liner Foods is based in Lunenberg, N.S. Privately held Sofina Foods Inc. of Markham, Ont. owns the Janes brand.
Trudeau recently, errantly said that Heinz ketchup is a foreign brand, unlike French’s. Kraft Heinz launched a campaign to correct him: the tomatoes are farmed in Ontario and turned into ketchup at a Montreal factory near Trudeau’s Papineau riding.
Donald doubles down
Trump did not wait for dawn on Groundhog Day to react.
On his Truth Social account, at 3:26 a.m. Mar-a-Lago time: “Without this massive [U.S.] subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!”
Tariff effect
No doubt, the trade war will hit consumers hard on both sides of the border, leading to job losses.
Eby did not mention it, but on Jan. 16, Minister of Finance Brenda Bailey claimed a 25% tariff for the entirety of Trump’s four-year term would lead to $69 billion in B.C. GDP decline and loss of more than 120,000 jobs.
theBreaker.news has sought a copy of the report, including methodology. But Ministry of Finance communications staff refuse to release it. They will not even disclose the name(s) and title(s) of whoever came up with the numbers.
Diane Lianga, the executive director of the Financial Reporting and Advisory Services departement, did not respond.
Poilievre: reopen the House
Pierre Poilievre, in Vancouver to march in the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and speak to members of the Jewish community at Temple Sholom, held a Feb. 2 news conference at the Sheraton Wall Centre. He sharply criticized Trump and his tariffs.
”My message to the Liberal government: Put aside partisan interests and recall Parliament. It is insane that in this great crisis Parliament is shut down to deal with the crisis and the power struggle within the Liberal Party,” the Conservative leader said.
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Bob Mackin
Consumers brace for economic upheaval on
